Originally published on 14 April 2025, by the UP College of Science.
The massive floods that tropical cyclones bring now demand urgent and science-based decision-making.
Considered one of the most devastating natural hazards globally, floods pose critical threats to both human life and economic stability. The Philippines is no stranger to flooding, as approximately 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. According to the 2023 World Risk Index Report, the country also ranks first among those most affected by extreme weather events.
Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay, a professor at the University of the Philippines – Diliman College of Science’s National Institute of Geological Sciences (UPD-CS NIGS) and executive director of the UP Resilience Institute (UPRI), together with scientists from the UPRI Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Center and Dr. Gerry Bagtasa of the UPD-CS Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM), with assistance from Dr. Bernard Alan Racoma of IESM and in partnership with the Academic Alliance for Anticipatory Action (4As), developed an impact-based flood forecasting system capable of predicting flooding in the entire Philippines. The system was funded by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID-BHA).
